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I’ve been an Apple Bull for years, but I’m starting to appreciate the reason for reducing the long position to current levels.

The P / E is higher than it was in the 2007-2010 mega-growth period.

In fact, the PEG is about three times richer than it was 10 to 12 years ago.

My fears go beyond assessments, as the predicted catalysts are about to materialize and soon become “old news”.

The equity portfolios have probably become too heavily attributed to Apple.

This might be a good time to move the exhibit.

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Let’s be clear: I’m an Apple Bull (AAPL) and have been for years.

For the reasons I will list below, I believe that stock deserves to be part of any investor’s diversified equity portfolio.

However, I think taking a particular inventory shouldn’t be “going back” or “running for the hills”. I, for example, have a more nuanced perspective on Apple. While the stock will likely continue to rise for a period of several years, I also think this may be a good time to consider if a portfolio might be over-allocated to that name.

Credit: Bay Nature background image

A quick note on buying and owning Apple
I could go into more detail on why buying and owning Apple shares might make sense today. Some of the reasons I have previously used to support my uptrend include things like:

The next round of 5G upgrade that could bring a mature smartphone company to life, albeit temporarily;
Further expansion of Apple’s more predictable, higher-margin service segment;
The success of a portable segment that just a few years ago would have confidently predicted to be the growth engine it has become;
Catalysts in VR and AR that have not yet taken place in a meaningful way and that could lead to the rise from the end of next year;
Apple’s large sum of money which I said could easily be used to double the company’s dividend payments or be distributed in several other ways to unlock value.

Let me add a layer to the discussion by looking at the historical development of prices.

Since Apple’s IPO in 1980, investors who bought stocks any time of the month and held them for exactly five years, regardless of price points or valuations, have gained more than 10% per year (i.e. higher market returns) about two-thirds of the time.

In only 7% of cases, buy and hold investors produced five-year losses of -10% per year or worse.

These rare cases coincided with Apple’s near bankruptcy years in the 1990s, a thought that would hardly cross the minds of Apple shareholders today. See the five-year yield distribution histogram below.

Source: DM Martins Research, Yahoo Finance data

Case of the bear of a bull: notes
With that said, let’s take a look at the downside.

Apple shares have risen 150% in the past year, even in times of a global pandemic and in the face of a potentially deep and painful global recession. The last time the stock rose this much in a 12 month period was in 2010. Remember that at the time (1) the economy had just started to recover from the recession 2008-2009 and (2) Apple was enjoying golden years of growth thanks to its two new product categories, iPhone and iPad.

From a final P / E perspective, Apple’s

valuation around June 2020 was as high as it was 10 years ago (see first chart below). However, as a result of the company’s third quarter profit plummet, the multiple has risen to almost 40 times today. These levels haven’t been seen since 2007, the year before the Great Recession which also marked the historic debut of the iPhone.

When I put the P / E into perspective for earnings growth, the valuation picture looks even more ominous.

Check out the second graph below and ignore the distraction spikes caused in large part by momentary fluctuations in BPA. The PEG is now above 3.0x, which is not a 2020 high. However, the growth-adjusted P / E ratio is now about three times richer than the multiple ever reached in 2007 or 2010.

The company’s strong fiscal third quarter was supported by increased demand for Apple products during the pandemic. Securing meant more iPads and Macs were needed, and these are precisely the two product categories that have performed the best in the most recent period (see graph below). The favorable winds of work and home study are unlikely to end entirely, but they could abate somewhat. Keep in mind that buying tech devices is done in waves and updates are usually not needed for 1 to 3 years on average.
Apple has grown nearly 10% in the past two weeks alone on less than positive news, and I have to assume that the 4-to-1 division must have played a role in boosting investor sentiment and fueling the momentum. The split will be “old news” from Monday August 31st.
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Source: DM Martins Research, Company Results Report data

Correcting a distortion
Due to the recent strength in the share price, a distortion seems to have occurred: the equity portfolios have probably become too heavily allocated to Apple. One of the best examples that comes to mind is the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA).

I would like to emphasize the term “industrial” in the name of the index. Despite this misleading branding, Apple (a tech and consumer discretionary company) makes up over 12% of the Dow 30 portfolio, not much less than all the other tech names combined. That number compares to an allocation of just 4.5% in 2015, when Apple was first added to the Dow Jones.

Source: DM Martins Research, Vanguard data

In my SRG All-Equities portfolio, AAPL is still a big piece of the pie, one of the top three stocks, in fact. However, I made the decision early last week to reduce my exposure to the Cupertino company a bit while the stock still has a big lead. I suggest other investors ask themselves if they should do the same with their portfolios.

Beat the Mile Market

AAPL is part of my All-Equities Storm-Resistant Growth portfolio. Other mega-cap names helped produce outsized gains, which were a mile better than the S&P 500 (see chart below, pink line).

To learn more about the storm-resistant growth investing approach, I invite you to join our community. Click here and start your free 14-day trial today. After that, don’t forget to join the live chat so you can share your thoughts.

Bill S. Preston, Esq. (Alex Winter) and Theodore Logan (Keanu Reeves) aren’t stoners, but they seem like they can and maybe should be, which is why Reeves felt compelled to clarify that point in a recent interview. Pot seems such a helpful explanation for the characters’ indomitable state of stunned good humor, even in the face of time travel and the afterlife, that the association continued even though the couple never smoke anything. Bill and Ted are the healthiest in a series of dirty late ’80s to early’ 90s duets like Beavis and Butthead and Wayne and Garth, but they’re also relics of a time when Californian stereotypes alone could. do it. equivalent to half of a premise for a movie or TV show. The joke at the heart of the Bill & Ted franchise is that two genius doofus from the San Gabriel Valley turn out to be the most important people in all mankind and, for that reason, the highlights of history and of metaphysics are filtered through the lack of cultural outline of a sunny suburb of SoCal.

It’s a joke that has held up incredibly well over the years.

The pleasures of Bill & Ted’s great adventure and Bill & Ted’s fake journey have endured, aside from a few homophobic slurs being thrown, due to the sheer stupidity of the films. It’s about saving the world, but they have so little urgency that the way Bill and Ted treat music was born almost three decades later proves to be quite appropriate. The new film, from director Dean Parisot and returning writers Chris Matheson and Ed Solomon, picks up with Bill and Ted in San Dimas, where they became fathers and husbands living side by side in a serene ass. -bag. They exchanged concerns of young people about overcoming history lessons and winning a group battle with middle age groups like precarious marriages and fear of failure. But Bill and Ted Face the Music don’t use the years as an excuse to stray into more raw territory. Instead, he emphasizes the sweetness at the heart of his primary relationship. Bill and Ted are two guys who love hard rock, the word “friend” and each other’s company, something that hasn’t changed just because times have changed.

What has remained a constant is also their dubious talent.

The film opens with the most recent wedding of Missy (Amy Stock-Poynton), who was Bill’s young stepmother first and then Ted’s, where the two play a song that isn’t even not at an appropriate distance for the first dance, but involving the enthusiasm of the theremin and throat singing. Most people put aside the desire to become a rock celebrity after a few years of struggle, but Bill and Ted were assured that their band, Wyld Stallyns, was about to usher in a global utopia with their music. 29 years and an explanatory montage later, they’re still floundering, as time and space begin to fall apart in the absence of a unifying bop of the universe. When Kristen Schaal teleports from the future as Kelly – daughter of Rufus, the character played by the late George Carlin in the first two films – Bill and Ted soon find themselves in the phone booth, advancing in hopes of getting a copy. of the song. assassin that they should have invented from their old self, which they suppose already written.

The couple’s ex-wives of the medieval princess, now played by Erinn Hayes.

Jayma Mays, are starting to bounce back on some of their most often-off-screen adventures. And then their daughters, Wilhelmina “Billie” Logan (Brigette Lundy-Paine) and Theodora “Thea” Preston (Samara Weaving), embark on a quest that is more essential to the growing crisis. Billie and Thea, a happy failed twenties whose friendship rivals that of their fathers, are clearly not drawn as characters beyond obvious parallels, although Lundy-Paine handles the incredible trick of meeting Reeves more like Reeves. in the original movies than in today’s Reeves does. These are the two men who remain at the heart of this successful and haphazard attempt, and they give their best, meeting several Bill’s and Ted’s over the years and, as would probably be the case with all of us, they didn’t. not always get along. with them.

Bill & Ted Face the Music features celebrity cameos and familiar faces:

William Sadler in parody of the death of the Seventh Seal remains an absurd and wonderful creation. Nostalgia is a staple part of the film’s allure, though it mostly manages to avoid the thrilling indulgences. The film’s most successful quality is how close it is to the spirit and laid-back style of the first two episodes, and how

How do you deny an unruly mutant? Block it, says the Essex Corporation, the villain of “The New Mutants,” an “X-Men” thriller – adjacent to an ultra-destructive child detention room – and 20th Century Studios, the producer of the ramshackle film. , agrees. Directed in 2017 by Josh Boone (“The Fault in Our Stars”), “The New Mutants” spent three years on the ice before they could escape into the slowest summer season in a century. It is suitable for a film which is all accumulated and without bang.

The mutants in question are five deadly teenagers .

who, shortly after their powers manifested during puberty, each killed someone (or an entire town, in the case of the distraught Dani Moonstar, played by Blu Hunt). With the exception of Illyana (Anya Taylor-Joy), a Russian who growls as she says she killed 18 men, none of whom are meant to kill. Roberto (Henry Zaga), a Brazilian playboy, has simply learned the hard way that he catches fire when aroused.

Now the quintet is in the care of Dr. Reyes (Alice Braga.

who promises to assuage their guilt with a mix of speech therapy and constant camera surveillance. The sickly teal walls are the first clue this dorm is not what it seems. As for the credentials of their guardian, Dr Reyes inherited the medical know-how of his mother, a veterinarian. Additionally, he can create a force field to trap his inmates in the asylum. Her patronage is partly Nurse Ratched, partly Director of “The Breakfast Club”. Of course, the children rebel with a dance montage.

The story, by Boone and Knate Lee, was designed to be a potentially profitable experience.

As “The Avengers” and “Star Wars” fill with galactic mythology, “The New Mutants” questions the question: Can a lightweight film with one location and no brand name pose as a franchise to success? The term “X-Men” is whispered over and over, as if Wolverine and his company are fanatics of the classic movie chain. These guys prefer a “Buffy the Vampire Slayer” marathon. Even Dr. Xavier, the patron saint of post-pubescent distress, is simply conjured up with a wheelchair and a look.

Honestly, Tyke’s contempt is refreshing.

The original New Mutants comics debuted in 1983, the year Johnny Ramone screamed for “Psycho Therapy,” and its punk and expressionist pages were spraying paint. Boone’s version is set in the ’90s and basks in the boredom of Gen-X. But the plot needs more vigor. Most of the uptime is allocated to hospital patients and their shame at the powers that put them under the control of the right doctor.

Thanks for reading The Times.

When triggered by a series of computer-generated things (including a phalanx of gangly, fanged disco dancers), boys’ inability to control – or explain – their skills makes them clumsy. While their elders have the ability to control time, metal or spirits, the young seem to have obtained the scum of a white elephant. Illyana is gifted with stepping into an alternate world where her puppet becomes a belching parrot-sized dragon, while Rahne, played with loving sincerity by Maisie Williams (“Game of Thrones”), simply transforms into wolf. As for Sam (Charlie Heaton from “Stranger Things”), the son of an explosive Kentucky miner, his greatest moment is when he chains himself to a pole and goes off like a soccer ball. Mark one for the old ones.